New Seat Details - Hampshire North West

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Hampshire North West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	36,687	62.0%
LAB	13,821	23.3%
LIB	5,850	9.9%
Green	1,417	2.4%
UKIP	1,394	2.4%
OTH	48	0.1%
CON Majority	22,866	38.6%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Hampshire North West: Map

List of old seats forming part of Hampshire North West

Old seat: Hampshire North East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hampshire North East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hampshire North East				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Basingstoke and Deane	Bramley and Sherfield	4,261	Hampshire North West	2,375	620	300	68	85	0	0	29	3,477
Basingstoke and Deane	Pamber and Silchester	3,598	Hampshire North West	1,925	455	196	44	60	0	0	12	2,692
Basingstoke and Deane	Sherborne St John	1,580	Hampshire North West	906	174	109	9	25	0	0	7	1,230
Basingstoke and Deane	Upton Grey and The Candovers	2,240	Hampshire North East	1,312	215	99	11	27	0	0	5	1,669
Hart	Crookham East	5,834	Aldershot	3,080	867	423	111	136	0	0	53	4,670
Hart	Crookham West and Ewshot	6,394	Aldershot	3,319	888	422	103	136	0	0	49	4,917
Hart	Fleet Central	6,374	Hampshire North East	3,239	1,053	480	116	153	0	0	67	5,108
Hart	Fleet East	5,670	Hampshire North East	2,883	815	633	76	121	0	0	12	4,540
Hart	Fleet West	5,820	Hampshire North East	3,346	795	468	87	123	0	0	39	4,858
Hart	Hartley Wintney	6,713	Hampshire North East	3,348	715	773	78	119	0	0	12	5,045
Hart	Hook	6,123	Hampshire North East	3,281	968	536	86	121	0	0	13	5,005
Hart	Odiham	6,302	Hampshire North East	3,848	740	661	87	129	0	0	43	5,508
Hart	Yateley East	4,819	Hampshire North East	1,970	716	777	76	99	0	0	11	3,649
Hart	Yateley West	6,482	Hampshire North East	2,921	959	1,110	108	142	0	0	14	5,254
	Total	72,210		37,753	9,980	6,987	1,060	1,476	0	0	366	57,622

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hampshire North East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hampshire North West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hampshire North West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hampshire North West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Basingstoke and Deane	Baughurst and Tadley North	4,353	Hampshire North West	1,991	643	440	47	43	0	0	0	3,164
Basingstoke and Deane	Burghclere, Highclere and St Mary Bourne	4,556	Hampshire North West	2,549	538	237	37	40	0	0	0	3,401
Basingstoke and Deane	East Woodhay	2,221	Hampshire North West	1,251	290	76	41	20	0	0	0	1,678
Basingstoke and Deane	Kingsclere	3,860	Hampshire North West	1,976	610	230	36	38	0	0	0	2,890
Basingstoke and Deane	Oakley and North Waltham	5,388	Hampshire North West	2,617	757	281	103	99	0	0	0	3,857
Basingstoke and Deane	Overton, Laverstoke and Steventon	3,795	Hampshire North West	1,438	961	331	38	100	0	0	0	2,868
Basingstoke and Deane	Sherborne St John	147	Hampshire North West	83	17	7	1	2	0	0	0	110
Basingstoke and Deane	Tadley Central	2,067	Hampshire North West	926	334	262	25	24	0	0	0	1,571
Basingstoke and Deane	Tadley South	4,374	Hampshire North West	2,077	782	424	51	52	0	0	0	3,386
Basingstoke and Deane	Whitchurch	4,007	Hampshire North West	1,656	731	526	93	51	0	0	0	3,057
Test Valley	Alamein	6,818	Hampshire North West	2,571	1,782	579	157	191	0	0	0	5,280
Test Valley	Amport	1,820	Test Valley	883	274	70	51	19	0	0	0	1,297
Test Valley	Anna	3,740	Test Valley	2,156	467	192	73	38	0	0	0	2,926
Test Valley	Bourne Valley	1,641	Hampshire North West	895	208	93	28	14	0	0	0	1,238
Test Valley	Charlton	1,520	Hampshire North West	771	226	79	39	17	0	0	0	1,132
Test Valley	Harroway	5,740	Hampshire North West	2,898	1,082	310	146	180	0	0	0	4,616
Test Valley	Millway	5,512	Hampshire North West	2,700	959	378	132	162	0	0	0	4,331
Test Valley	Penton Bellinger	3,601	Test Valley	1,950	480	200	72	30	0	0	0	2,732
Test Valley	St Mary's	6,804	Hampshire North West	2,210	1,565	578	153	140	0	0	0	4,646
Test Valley	Winton	6,075	Hampshire North West	2,872	1,087	414	146	74	0	0	0	4,593
	Total	78,039		36,470	13,793	5,707	1,469	1,334	0	0	0	58,773

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hampshire North West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Hampshire North West

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Hampshire North West
Basingstoke and Deane	Baughurst and Tadley North	4,383	Hampshire North West	1,991	643	440	47	43	0	0	0	3,164
Basingstoke and Deane	Bramley and Sherfield	4,557	Hampshire North East	2,375	620	300	68	85	0	0	29	3,477
Basingstoke and Deane	Burghclere, Highclere and St Mary Bourne	4,713	Hampshire North West	2,549	538	237	37	40	0	0	0	3,401
Basingstoke and Deane	East Woodhay	2,324	Hampshire North West	1,251	290	76	41	20	0	0	0	1,678
Basingstoke and Deane	Kingsclere	4,003	Hampshire North West	1,976	610	230	36	38	0	0	0	2,890
Basingstoke and Deane	Oakley and North Waltham	5,343	Hampshire North West	2,617	757	281	103	99	0	0	0	3,857
Basingstoke and Deane	Overton, Laverstoke and Steventon	3,973	Hampshire North West	1,438	961	331	38	100	0	0	0	2,868
Basingstoke and Deane	Pamber and Silchester	3,524	Hampshire North East	1,925	455	196	44	60	0	0	12	2,692
Basingstoke and Deane	Sherborne St John	1,612	Hampshire North East	906	174	109	9	25	0	0	7	1,230
Basingstoke and Deane	Sherborne St John	151	Hampshire North West	83	17	7	1	2	0	0	0	110
Basingstoke and Deane	Tadley Central	2,176	Hampshire North West	926	334	262	25	24	0	0	0	1,571
Basingstoke and Deane	Tadley South	4,691	Hampshire North West	2,077	782	424	51	52	0	0	0	3,386
Basingstoke and Deane	Whitchurch	4,237	Hampshire North West	1,656	731	526	93	51	0	0	0	3,057
Test Valley	Alamein	7,315	Hampshire North West	2,571	1,782	579	157	191	0	0	0	5,280
Test Valley	Bourne Valley	1,714	Hampshire North West	895	208	93	28	14	0	0	0	1,238
Test Valley	Charlton	1,570	Hampshire North West	771	226	79	39	17	0	0	0	1,132
Test Valley	Harroway	6,396	Hampshire North West	2,898	1,082	310	146	180	0	0	0	4,616
Test Valley	Millway	6,003	Hampshire North West	2,700	959	378	132	162	0	0	0	4,331
Test Valley	St Mary's	6,438	Hampshire North West	2,210	1,565	578	153	140	0	0	0	4,646
Test Valley	Winton	6,366	Hampshire North West	2,872	1,087	414	146	74	0	0	0	4,593
	Total	81,489		36,687	13,821	5,850	1,394	1,417	0	0	48	59,217

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Hampshire North West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Kit Malthouse (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	81,489
Turnout:	72.7%

Hampshire North West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Hampshire North West: Overview

Introduction